Let's Be Honest: The Primaries Are Joever
That doesn't mean there's no point in Haley or others running, or in protest votes, but it's unlikely for any outcomes to change.
Hello, friends,
Last week, we talked about some recent far-right culture war horrorshows. Today we’re talking about more of a political one. It’s gonna be a short article this week, as I’ve had a lot of obligations this week and I’m too drained & time constrained to do any kind of deep dive.
Basically put: It’s not even Super Tuesday, but the primaries are almost entirely over, even if you still have a vote to cast.
Let’s look at the Democratic side, first.
The Democratic Primary Is Joever.
Yes, they’re still going on. And, yes, protest votes are still important. The Uncommitted campaign in Michigan racked up over 100,000 votes to protest the war in Gaza, and that’s huge. I’m not trying to take anything away from that. Yes, I’m still going to vote for Marianne Williamson when it’s New York’s turn, just because I can.
But the thing to note is that the Uncommitted campaign wasn’t, “Let’s show we disapprove of Biden by voting for someone else.” That might have led to a change in the dynamics of the primaries. Instead, Williamson and Philips combined for about 6%. That’s great in a state that wasn’t primed to vote for Biden, but the whole point of the Uncommitted campaign was to send a message, and the message they sent sounds more like, “We want change and we’ll come back to support you,” rather than, “We want change by supporting someone else entirely.”
This isn’t to take anything away from the work that campaigners are doing, but the campaign is just over. At this rate, maybe people are playing for a couple delegates here and there, but I can’t think of any states that have the same kind of anti-authority dynamics as New Hampshire and Michigan did.
I know Marianne unsuspended her campaign, which makes me really wonder why it was suspended prior to a state with a major anti-Biden streak in it, but…Again, I’ll vote for her, but from a pure realpolitik standpoint there’s just no chance she’s going to come back into the race and start picking up states. That pretention won’t help anyone.
Yeah, sure, I wish Biden had gotten a more significant primary. Yeah, I think Biden is a relatively weak candidate who is conservative. And, yeah, soon (probably after Super Tuesday, so next week) I’m gonna give the whole, “Let’s ignore all the problems I have with him and focus on the things he’s accomplished” article a shot.
But whether we like it or not, unless he falls ill and dies, he’s our nominee. That’s just the way this is going to go. (And if he did fall ill? You’d better believe the DNC would get behind Kamala Harris.) We gave it our best shot. Now we have to make do with a less than perfect reality.
The Republican Primaries Still Have Resounding Purpose
On the Republican side, it’s very different. Well, a little different. I don’t envision Haley winning any states outright, but her constantly being able to pull 30% of the vote or more in each state is a signal that something is wrong.
More to the point, Trump is nearly as old as Biden and probably in worse mental and physical health on top of being tied up in numerous court entanglements. While there’s still no guarantee he will be convicted and imprisoned (the Supreme Court recently set a late April hearing on his immunity claim, pushing all of his federal trials back by another two fucking months, at least), he might find himself under such legal duress as to be unable to move forward as a candidate.
In other words, Haley’s primary efforts still have three meanings:
- If Trump were to fall ill on the campaign trail, she’d be the natural next step.
- If Trump were to be unable to continue the campaign due to legal stuff and/or conviction in at least the New York election interference (I.E. “payoff”) case, she’d be the natural next step.
- If Trump can continue, she can still pull 30+% each time, thus demonstrating to the rest of the world that at least some element of the Republican party might still fight against Trump when the time comes to cast a vote.
Now, Haley might or might not be scouted by some third-party venture like No Labels. She might endorse Biden. She might endorse Trump - and for all I know he makes her VP. I have no idea because I don’t live in her head. I can expect her to do the shitty things because she’s generally a shitty person, but that’s another story.
Plus, I mean, isn’t it kinda funny to watch Trump constantly have to worry about her. Plus, in states with open primaries, Democratic and independent voters can cross over to vote for Haley and stir the pot up a whole bunch more, maybe even giving her a win or two, depending on the state.
So In Conclusion…
Yeah, you’d better believe we’re likely to see a Trump-Biden rematch. That’s just the version of Planet Earth we live on. And with Project 2025 looming in the Fascist’s playbook, you’d best believe that we need to be willing to accept a less terrible candidate than allowing a more terrible candidate to get into office.
After all, that more terrible candidate might simply send Seal Team Six after his opponents if the Supreme Court lets him. I can’t imagine he’d leave office for the rest of his life.
Thank you for reading The Progressive Cafe. If this article has helped you, please consider signing up for our mailing list. This article is by Jesse Pohlman, a sci-fi/fantasy author from Long Island, New York, whose website you can check out here.